China's $167.8 Billion Dam: A Game Changer for India's Water Security?

China's Ambitious Dam Project on the Brahmaputra

On July 19, China initiated the construction of a monumental $167.8 billion dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh. This project, touted as the largest infrastructure endeavor globally, poses significant risks to the delicate ecosystem of the region while simultaneously enhancing China's geopolitical influence over India, which lies downstream. The scale of this undertaking eclipses all other infrastructure projects worldwide, including China's own Three Gorges Dam, which is currently recognized as the largest and is reportedly visible from space.

The Brahmaputra, referred to as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibetan, begins at the Angsi Glacier close to Gang Rinpoche (known as Mount Kailash in India), located on the northern slopes of the Himalayas in Burang County, Tibet. It flows across the Tibetan Plateau, forming the deepest canyon on Earth. The dam is being built in a crucial gorge in the Himalayan region, where the Brahmaputra makes a U-turn before entering Arunachal Pradesh and eventually flowing into the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh. This project site is situated along a tectonic plate boundary, as the Tibetan Plateau, often called the roof of the world, is located over the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, making it prone to earthquakes.

In 2006, India and China set up the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) to discuss various matters related to transboundary rivers. Through this framework, China had been sharing vital hydrological data with India concerning the Brahmaputra in the northeast and the Sutlej in the northwest during flood seasons. However, since 2022, Beijing has stopped providing this crucial information, following the expiration of previous Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs). This data blackout coincides with an uptick in China's construction of large dams in Tibet, leaving India without essential upstream flow data. For example, China has already operationalized the Zam Hydropower Station, a $1.5 billion project and the largest in Tibet, which was inaugurated in 2015, raising concerns from India.

The Brahmaputra is vital for India, supporting nearly one-third of the country's freshwater reserves and contributing over 40 percent of its hydropower potential. The lack of access to upstream data puts India at risk of ecological, economic, and strategic challenges, particularly in its northeastern states. Moreover, the possibility of China using the Brahmaputra's waters as a strategic tool against India cannot be overlooked. For instance, China could release water from the dam without prior notice, potentially flooding lower regions of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has emphasized that this dam poses an existential threat to local communities and could be utilized as a “water bomb” by China against India.

From a strategic perspective, Pakistan views this dam project as a significant advantage, strengthening its alliance with China and countering Indian influence in the region. This is particularly relevant given India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. The IWT, established in 1960, has endured despite three wars, including the Kargil conflict. Approximately 93 percent of the Indus River's water is used for irrigating about 80 percent of Pakistan's agricultural land, supporting around 230 million people. Indian leaders have warned that “blood and water cannot flow together” and have pledged not to supply “even a drop of water to Pakistan.” In this context, the potential for China to weaponize the Brahmaputra in a similar manner to support its ally Pakistan is concerning.

Unlike the IWT between India and Pakistan, China is not bound by any water-sharing agreement with India. Currently, China has effectively surrounded India with adversaries and is itself involved in a border dispute with India. India's diplomatic relations with its neighboring countries appear to be deteriorating. In such a scenario, a water conflict with China is the last challenge India needs to confront.